Saraki's Strategic Play: Moves Ahead of the 2027 Nigerian Elections
What does the future hold for ex-Senate president Dr Bukola Saraki as the next general elections approach?
This query remains captivating for political analysts who have been tracking Saraki’s journey in national politics, starting from when he was appointed as Special Assistant on Budget by ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo back in 2000.
Rumors are rife — might Saraki go back to the All Progressives Congress (APC)? Is he planning another bid for the presidency? Might he seek reelection as Senator of Kwara Central? Alternatively, could he be thinking about withdrawing completely from politics—the sphere where he has made his mark over many years?
While the momentum for the 2027 general election is gradually building, Saraki has adopted a notably low profile. Apart from his last public comment on the controversy involving Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, the former Senate president has largely maintained silence, even as opposition figures like former Kaduna State governor, Nasiru El-Rufai, intensify efforts to form a coalition against President Bola Tinubu.
It is noteworthy that Saraki — who has always been recognized as one of Nigeria’s most strategic and influential political figures — continues to be notably missing from discussions within coalitions that include prominent opposition members such as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, his party’s nominee for the 2023 presidency and a close associate.
After suffering consecutive losses in 2019 and 2023, Saraki’s impact in both Kwara State, where he was governor for eight years, and in national politics has diminished. However, those close to him maintain that his apparent calmness stems from a strategic choice rather than lack of interest.
Strategic silence and dining table politics
Recent assessments inside his camp indicate that Saraki is adopting a strategy of patience.
Recently, during a trip to Ilorin for the Nikkah ceremony of the Mufti of Ilorin, Sheikh Suleiman Faruk Onikijipa, Saraki allegedly convened a small assembly of supporters at his home on Broadway. During this intimate meeting, the ex-governor purportedly discussed his insights into the current political climate.
A high-level participant at the gathering informed Daily Trust that Saraki firmly dismissed any notions of rejoining the APC, attributing these speculations to specific members of the APC trying to create uncertainty.
The source stated, 'We addressed this during the meeting, and he refuted it.'
Concerning the current discussions around a potential merger among opposition groups, a source revealed that Saraki has doubts about either successfully forming a new political party or effectively utilizing one of the parties currently in existence ahead of the 2027 elections.
He thinks Tinubu, as an astute politician, will ensure that INEC does not register any additional political parties. Furthermore, numerous governors from both APC and PDP have expressed allegiance to the president with the aim of safeguarding their own political careers,” he noted.
He clarified that the implication was that opposition governors are not expected to support any new coalitions financially, which explains why Saraki is hesitant about openly joining the movement.
A Wike-style game plan?
As per an additional prominent figure within the Saraki political dynasty, the ex-Senate president might be mulling over a tactic akin to that of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike.
Given the current circumstances, the Saraki political dynasty will probably follow the Wike model," disclosed the source. "We have no intention of exiting the PDP. As you're aware, Wike and fellow supporters such as Makinde and Ortam have backed Tinubu while remaining within the party and are now enjoying the rewards of their loyalty. That’s our situation at present.
He also dismissed the chance of Saraki entering the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Meanwhile, he suggested that political circumstances might change quickly.
A high-ranking source verified that Saraki has no current intentions of pursuing any elected office.
"His silence is intentional. While national politics matters greatly to us, Kwara holds equal importance. Observe the alliance; among the present APC governors, who would be prepared to switch to the PDP? Interestingly, even certain PDP governors hesitate to support their own party financially. Saraki is closely monitoring these developments and will choose what he believes is most beneficial for Nigeria," he stated.
A high-ranking figure within the Saraki camp further stated that maintaining secrecy is also a calculated tactic.
“Politics will stay as it is. Choosing not to reveal his position at this time is also a part of politics. The fact that he hasn’t mentioned anything regarding the alliance does not indicate whether he’s in or out. Instead, he is watching and assessing,” he stated.
Restoring the Empire in Kwara
In Kwara State, Saraki’s once-mighty political network has faced significant challenges since the rift within his family prior to the death of the clan leader, Senator Olusola Saraki, and the subsequent ‘Otoge’ uprising in 2019. By 2023, more than twenty crucial figures from the PDP had either switched allegiance to the APC or stepped down, such as former party secretary Razak Lawal, organizing secretary Bilikis Oniyangi, women’s leader Alhaja Riskat Abdullahi, and longtime supporter Alhaji Bibire Ajape.
Nevertheless, party representatives maintain that the dynasty remains very much alive.
Hon. Babatunde Mohammed, who serves as the PDP chairman in Kwara and previously held the position of Speaker in the Kwara State House of Assembly, stated to Daily Trust that his party is "completely ready and united" for the upcoming 2027 general elections.
Regarding the national coalition involving Saraki, Babatunde stated, "As party chairman, I prefer not to say too much at this moment until we have our NEC meeting scheduled for sometime in May. However, within Kwara State, every elected position will go through an open contest. We won’t impose any candidates."
The spokesman for the PDP, Olushola Adewara, similarly affirmed Saraki's allegiance to the PDP, stating, "He remains firmly with us. Our party is well-prepared for the upcoming elections."
A high-ranking figure within the royal family, who chose to remain anonymous, mentioned that individuals who quit the party had been increasingly distant for some time, making their exit inconsequential.
Dr. Bakare Adebola, the National Secretary of the NPSA, stated to Daily Trust: “In politics, no dynasty ceases to exist unless it chooses to. It’s uncertain what actions the APC government might take over the next four years or which type of candidate the Saroakis will present in 2027. The individual could potentially be someone who is greatly adored, leaving voters with little alternative.”
I do not anticipate the demise of the dynasty; it hinges on their approach to handling the current circumstances. One error the Saraki dynasty committed was retreating into isolation right away—they faced defeat in 2019 and only emerged when the elections were imminent.
If they adhere to the same sluggish approach, they might face yet another loss in 2027. Deprived of power currently, should they choose not to retreat and persist with initiatives aimed at drawing attention under certain names, they could return during the subsequent election with necessary financial support.
He advised Saraki to take cues from Kano, where the Kwankwasiyya movement regained strength after failing in 2019, eventually winning the governorship and two senate seats in 2023.
Is a Machiavellian strategy advisable for the future?
Upon being reached out to, Saraki's media assistant, Yusuph Olaniyonu, stated: "Saraki is currently in Saudi Arabia performing the Lesser Hajj, and since I am not accompanying him, I do not have information about his stance concerning the coalition."
However, Professor Hassan Saliu, who serves as the National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), provided an insightful viewpoint: "Perhaps he is still monitoring the circumstances to determine which side to support."
If people who move around cannot adapt to him, would he choose to follow them? He needs to make his own assessments, and there are choices available—whether to stay with the PDP, switch to the APC, or depart for another political party.
Dr. Seyid Hassan Cisse, who teaches Politics and Governance at Kwara State University, stated: "There’s no question about Saraki being an astute political figure, however, the PDP must focus on strengthening their internal group dynamics. Leaders such as Wike, Makinde, and others within the upper echelons of the party seem uncertain—where they stand remains unclear."
I don't believe Saraki is running for president as I don't consider it a wise choice for the party to select a candidate from the North Central region. However, he will wield considerable sway over whoever does run.
When individuals remain quiet under such circumstances, they often act cunningly. Saraki is an excellent player of politics and understands how to navigate these intricate situations. Sometimes, though, God demonstrates His undeniable influence.
Regarding the condition of his local organization, he commented, "Saraki will not surrender at home as maintaining the family legacy is crucial, particularly since the competition in Kwara has become intensely close."
Provided by Syndigate Media Inc. ( Syndigate.info ).
