Could the Israel-Turkey War of Words Turn Into a Real Conflict?
The verbal conflict between Israel and Turkey has been escalating. Observers suggest that the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria were intended as a warning to Turkey. Could this lead to an outright clash between these nations?
Threats and insults have been exchanged between both parties for several days now.
Turkey aims to create a "neo-Ottoman state" in Syria, and if it breaches certain "red lines," Israel will respond accordingly, according to warnings from high-ranking Israeli officials.
Due to its continuous aerial assaults on Gaza, Lebanon And regarding Syria, Israeli authorities have been labeled as having a "fanatical and discriminatory" administration that poses "the biggest risk to regional safety" due to their "confrontational and expansive strategies." Turkish officials reacted accordingly.
The most recent undiplomatic remarks emerged towards the end of last week following Israel's renewed attacks on Syria.
Following the ousting of the previous authoritarian Syrian government, headed by dictator Bashar Assad, in December 2024, Israel has carried out numerous attacks within Syrian territory. The newly established Syrian leadership, preoccupied with reunifying their nation after 14 years of fractious civil unrest, assert that they have no desire for any hostilities with Israel.
Nevertheless, Israel claims it has been forced to bomb Syria To make sure the new government wouldn't employ the former administration's arms against itself.
However, the airstrikes from last week had a distinct purpose; they were meant to send a message to Turkey, according to statements made by an Israeli official to local press outlets.
Israeli warplanes targeted a military airfield in Hama, struck the Tiyas, also known as T4, airbase in Homs, and bombed a facility belonging to the Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus.
Turkey has been discreetly discussing a defense agreement with the new Syrian government For several months now, this would involve training Syrian forces and utilizing their airfields, like the ones targeted by Israel.
Turkey contends that this move would enable it to step into the void created by Iran and Russia—the previous military backers of the ousted Assad administration—thereby assisting in stabilizing Syria and continuing efforts against the extreme militant organization known as ISIS.
Israel sees it differently.
Turkey’s plan to deploy air defense systems and radars at key Syrian airports directly jeopardizes Israel’s ability to operate unimpeded within Syria," Israeli defense journalist Ron Ben-Yishai stated in an opinion piece for Ynet News. According to him, should Turkey establish control over Syria, Israel would lose its unrestricted access to Syrian airspace when attempting operations toward countries like Iran. During the reign of the Assad government, such usage was considerably limited anyway.
The Israeli media took particular interest in a report from the Nagel Commission, which assessed both the security budget and military expansion. Established in August 2024 under Acting Israeli Security Adviser Jacob Nagel’s leadership, this commission aimed to provide guidance for Israel’s upcoming defense budget. Upon the release of their findings in January, local news sources highlighted that the document had cautioned about an impending conflict with Turkey.
However, in a recent interview, Nagle stated, “the news outlets exaggerated... While Turkey’s growing involvement in Syria is noteworthy and deserves our consideration, we never suggested provoking a confrontation with Turkey.”
There has also been discussion in Israel regarding the concern over a developing "Sunni crescent," which would involve Turkey, Syria, and Egypt forming an alliance opposed to Israel. This new alignment would supplant the earlier apprehension surrounding such a development. "Shiite crescent" Led by Iran, which has faced weakening influence recently. However, experts argue that the concept of a "Sunni crescent" is improbable: None of these nations genuinely wish to confront Israel.
Actually, just two days later Israeli airstrikes on Syria Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan informed the Reuters news agency that his nation seeks to avoid conflict with Israel.
"Fidan stated during his visit to Brussels for a NATO conference that neither Turkey nor Israel owns Syria. He emphasized that Syrian security matters should be determined by the Syrians themselves. Additionally, he mentioned that if these individuals wish to collaborate with specific nations and international entities, such cooperation would be welcomed," Fidan remarked whilst attending a NATO gathering in Brussels. "The ownership of Syria does not lie with either Turkey or Israel,” Fidan asserted while at the NATO summit in Brussels. “Decisions regarding Syrian security ought to rest solely within their hands. Should they choose to ally with particular states and global organizations, this partnership will be accepted.”
'Deepest rupture in years' between Israel and Turkey
Due to the recent exchange of harsh rhetoric, Turkish-Israeli relations have reached their weakest state in many years, according to analysts.
Indeed, this appears to be the most significant rift in recent times," concurred Yusuf Can, a specialist on Turkey and ex-analyst from the Wilson Center, a Washington-based research organization disbanded by the Trump administration just days ago. "Turkey and Israel maintained an unusual relationship for quite some time; even during political disagreements, commerce continued unabated. However, this protective barrier seems to be weakening... The prospect of a proxy war has become much more likely now than it used to be.
In 1949, Turkey became one of the earliest Muslim-majority nations to form official ties with Israel. Both countries developed relationships involving intelligence sharing, commerce, and military cooperation. Despite heated statements made by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan And despite tensions, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has helped maintain these connections between their countries throughout the past year.
What is actually happening here?
Through aerial attacks on Syrian infrastructure, deploying forces into Syrian territory, and intervening in its internal politics , Israel is compelling the militarily outmatched Syrian government to seek assistance from Turkey, according to observers.
"Persistent Israeli aggression, efforts to 'demilitarize' southern Syria, and meddling in Syrian political affairs could increase the likelihood of the new Syrian government strengthening its defensive collaboration with Turkey as a means to counteract potential additional Israeli advances," observed a mid-March commentary from the Brussels-based think tank Crisis Group.
“Each party views the other as the core issue,” Can explained to DIWIDA.NEWS. “However, the truth varies depending on whom you consult. Both perspectives hold validity. There’s no doubt that Israel’s bombing campaigns and policies toward Gaza incite rage and unrest. Yet, Turkey’s involvement across the region and backing of Islamic groups has also exacerbated disorder, particularly within Syria. This cycle perpetuates itself; every move made by either side reinforces their counterpart’s apprehensions.”
Nonetheless, Israel and Turkey are not expected to engage in an outright clash. Efforts seem to be underway this week to ease the tensions since even a inadvertent strike on the Turkish military by Israel could potentially lead to significant hostilities.
“Privately, all parties acknowledge that an outright military confrontation would be catastrophic, particularly because Turkey is part of NATO and Israel is a crucial U.S. ally,” Can went on. “Furthermore, discussions about potential American or Russian intervention to prevent further escalation are circulating. Therefore, despite the genuine danger of heightened tensions, each side appears to be carefully treading this precarious path.”
It is highly improbable that America, Israel's strongest supporter, would agree.
"President [Donald] Trump is central to this discussion because of his connections with both leaders," Can observes.
During Netanyahu's trip to Washington this week Trump stated that he shared a “highly positive rapport” with both Turkey and its leadership. Additionally, he advised Netanyahu to remain pragmatic and find common ground regarding any issues between Israel and Turkey.
Sadly, the rivalry might still unfold within Syria, as Can surmised.
At this juncture, the two countries pursue contradictory objectives, according to Selin Nasi, a visiting scholar specializing in Turkish studies at the London School of Economics, who spoke with Radio France Internationale recently.
Turkey aims for a safe and stable unified state," Nasi stated. "In contrast, Israel prefers to see a weakened and divided Syria. Their primary worry remains the security of their northern frontier.
Author: Cathrin Schaer
