Voters in Flux: How Shifting Faith Landscapes Are Reshaping U.S. Politics
Following years of ascent, the portion of Americans who do not affiliate with any religion has leveled off Over the last several years, approximately 29% of adults have identified themselves as atheists, agnostics, or "nothing in particular," reveals a significant report published by the Pew Research Center on February 26, 2025.
However, this does not imply that the "nones" or their influence on American society will disappear. On the contrary, their substantial numbers make it probable that they will gain more political significance.
It likely comes as no shock that numerous non-religious voters lean to the political left It might come as a surprise to discover that quite a significant portion of non-religious voters exists. supported President Donald Trump In the elections of 2020 and 2024.
If the aforementioned passage seems puzzling, it’s because "nonreligious" and "secular" are frequently regarded as interchangeable terms. However, this assumption is misleading. political scientists who study religion – and the lack thereof — We've discovered that there is a basic distinction between the two groups. Although common belief suggests that religious voters tend to be Republican and non-religious voters typically lean Democratic, the truth is more complex.
Nonreligious vs. secular
What distinguishes individuals who are nonreligious from those who are secular?
People who aren’t particularly religious often describe themselves based on negatives: not adhering to a specific faith, skipping church services, and lacking belief in deities. During our research, we found that numerous individuals unaffiliated with any religion fail to mention a distinct set of beliefs or principles guiding their lives when questioned.
In contrast, secular individuals, They define themselves based on who they are. This refers to an individual who adopts a perspective that combines both humanistic and scientific viewpoints. When questioned regarding their source of truth, they look towards fields like science and philosophy rather than relying on scriptures or religious doctrines. Typically, these individuals classify themselves as atheists, agnostics, or humanists.
Some individuals who identify as non-religious still adopt certain elements of belief systems. The concepts of religiosity and secularity do not operate on a win-lose scale; an increase in one doesn’t automatically lead to a decrease in the other. Our study uncovered numerous instances where people participated actively in religious groups despite their secular outlooks. still maintain a secular perspective This applies to numerous Jews, mainline Protestants, and even Catholics, for instance.
4 groups
To gain a deeper understanding of American perspectives, we've spent more than ten years refining questions aimed at identifying individuals with a secular mindset. Simultaneously, we inquire about their level of religious engagement, including how frequently they attend services. This research ultimately led to our 2021 publication titled " Secular Shift: A Emerging Divide in U.S. Politics .”
From the findings, we can categorize the American populace into four groups: Religionists, Nonreligionists, Secularists, and Religious Secularists.
The Religious Believers category encompasses individuals from every faith. Representing 41% of the population, this constitutes the biggest segment in the U.S., though they fall short of being a majority.
In this demographic, secular individuals account for 27%, which is a higher proportion compared to any individual religious group. For instance, evangelical Christians represent 23% of the U.S. populace. according to Pew , with Catholics making up 19%.
An additional 14% of Americans fall into the category of Religious Secularists: individuals who affiliate with and engage in a religious community but hold a primarily secular outlook on life. These people could be regular attendees at worship services, though they view their religion more as a cultural tradition rather than a guiding force for everyday choices. A number of these Religious Secularists might label themselves as agnostics or atheists.
Ultimately, 18% of Americans fall into the category of Nonreligionists: these individuals do not adhere to any religious beliefs, nor do they embrace a secular outlook. Their identity is characterized more by absence than presence, defined primarily by what they lack rather than what they possess.
Political views
These four categories differ based on their level of political involvement – and when involved, which parties or candidates they back.
In our volume on America’s “rise of secularism” Data for this study was sourced from a national survey carried out in 2017. Additionally, in 2021, we undertook our own research. a second wave of that survey.
Based on the analysis of the survey data featured in this article, religionists and secularists show similar levels of engagement in political activities: approximately 30% of individuals from each group indicated they participated in some form of political action over the last year, including things like joining rallies, campaigning for candidates, or making financial contributions. In contrast, non-religionists showed significantly lower involvement with just 17% participating politically.
Indeed, regardless of the type of citizen participation – voting , volunteering – Those who did not adhere to religion consistently the has the lowest probability of being engaged Only 30% of non-religious individuals say they belong to any kind of club or group, whereas this figure rises to around 50% for the general population.
In the 2021 survey, we requested participants to score several politicians using a scale from 0 to 100, where a larger figure indicates a more favorable opinion.
Religionists scored Trump an average of 61, which was the highest among the four categories; Secularists provided him with the lowest rating, at just 14 points. For non-religious individuals, Trump received a score of 47.
It would be wrong, however, to call the Nonreligionists an ideologically conservative group.
Look at their assessments of Bernie Sanders, who aligns with the Democratic Party yet identifies as a democratic socialist. Among these groups, approval of Sanders was precisely the inverse of how they viewed Trump, a member of the Republican Party. For example, secular individuals rated Sanders quite highly, averaging around 66 points; conversely, religious people had a much lower opinion of him, giving an average rating of only 32 points.
In contrast, Nonreligionists provided almost the same rating for Trump and Sanders. Considering these two individuals represent opposing ends of the ideological spectrum, why did Nonreligionists score them equally? We believe this might be due to both figures challenge the status quo .
In 2024, the The Trump campaign endeavored to rally support. "Low-propensity voters": political terminology referring to individuals who exhibit low degrees of civic involvement frequently observed among Nonreligionists Not only do they politically disengaged They are predominantly young, male, white individuals who lack a college education.
A ‘secular left’?
Secularists also tend to be predominantly young and white. However, in other aspects, they differ significantly. very different from Nonreligionists Secular individuals usually possess a college education and consist of an equal mix of women and men. They generally lean towards liberalism and actively participate in political activities.
Thus, what impact will this have on American politics? The outcome might hinge on whether Secularists come together as a cohesive force—a secular counterpart to the religious right.
Currently, deeply religious conservatives are a singing ensemble active in American politics , at the heart of the Republican Party. However, a generation ago, they constituted a varied assembly of individuals hailing from various Christian denominations, ranging from Baptists to Pentecostals. Numerous religious factions that Now march together for a shared purpose once had sharp disagreements.
The outcome still needs to be determined. if secular voters will come together In much the same manner, one can confidently assert that the religious landscape of America has undergone considerable transformation.
Do not assume, though, that moving away from religion automatically leads to a decisive shift towards the political left. It’s important to recognize that the narrative is far more intricate. Currently, secular voters tend to favor the left – yet those who are non-religious remain somewhat unpredictable.
David Campbell Packey J. Dee Professorship in American Democracy University of Notre Dame and Geoffrey C. Layman , Professor specializing in Political Science, University of Notre Dame
This piece has been republished from The Conversation Under a Creative Commons license. Refer to original article .
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