Ukraine Conflict: Unveiling Putin's Negotiation Strategy

Russia's president says he supports the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine, "in principle." But Vladimir Putin has attached various conditions to his agreement — which critics say reveal Russia’s true aims.

Vladimir Putin wanted to address an issue immediately. Even before replying to the question, he proposal for a ceasefire During the conflict with Ukraine, the Russian leader expressed "words of appreciation" to U.S. President Donald Trump for his considerable focus on resolving the situation in Ukraine. He made these remarks in Moscow on March 13.

It wasn’t an accident. As noted by Anton Barbashin, a political analyst and the editor-in-chief of the analytical platform, “Putin aims for Trump to think that Putin is keen on striking a deal.” Riddle Russia . Putin aims not to provoke Trump, just like how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy behaves. Zelenskyy Instead, as Barbashin points out, the Russian president aims to press all the right buttons to get Trump to engage in conversation and secure a deal.

Nevertheless, Putin’s vision for what this agreement entails might differ from Trump's perspective. The U.S. President seeks an initial 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Although Putin expressed support for this proposal, he also mentioned that “there are issues we need to address.” Which specific concerns is he referring to, and what insights do these raise regarding Russia’s intended course of action?

Russia aims to broaden the discussions

Putin's concerns, which he characterized as "queries," are actually clear-cut requirements. The Ukrainian troops continuing to battle within Russian borders remain Kursk region Ukraine ought to capitulate. It shouldn’t be permitted to recruit additional troops throughout the truce. Additionally, the Western nations should halt the supply of weaponry to Kyiv for the duration of this timeframe.

Putin stated that the ceasefire aims to "result in lasting peace and address the root causes of the conflict." The ambiguous wording serves as an effort to guide the discussions towards Russia’s broader objectives concerning Ukraine.

"Russia is seeking a ceasefire that would pave the way for direct peace negotiations," stated Anton Barbashin. As such, Moscow aims to obtain multiple preconditions, notably ensuring that Ukraine will never join part of NATO —and Barbashin says they want this verification confirmed "by both NATO and Ukraine."

In addition, Putin has outlined his public objectives for the conflict, calling for Ukraine to fully withdraw from the areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, where Russian troops have seized control only partly so far.

Would Ukraine agree?

Experts aligned with the Kremlin think that Putin’s demands might be palatable to Trump. According to Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political analyst who posted this view on his Telegram channel, “The U.S. could likely consent to imposing an arms embargo since Trump is unwilling to allocate additional funds toward Ukraine.” Furthermore, he suggested that halting further conscription in Ukraine might paradoxically bolster the Ukrainian administration's standing.

However, the US is now providing arms to Ukraine once more, after brief pause And mobilization remains the sole method for Ukraine, which is facing an assault, to sustain its defenses. As such, it appears improbable that Ukraine would consent to these conditions.

"In spite of all the information coming out of Washington, Ukraine indeed possesses several strong advantages," stated security expert Dmitri Alperovitch. He explained that Ukraine has the option to continue defending itself with support from Europe. even with no backing from the United States It would certainly pose greater challenges, yet that alternative remains available to them.

Russia is buying time rather than intimidating Trump.

Numerous analysts think Putin is seeking delays. Delays during which his forces aim to expel Ukrainian soldiers from Russian soil in the Kursk area. Additionally, he might use this period to persuade Trump—possibly at an upcoming summit—to agree to a broader accord.

As per Barbashin, should Putin manage to enforce his requirements, "it could lead to a more extensive conversation regarding the security framework of Europe." Concerning Trump, skepticism toward NATO It may not be a secret, they could be ready to participate in such a conversation — presenting a distinct chance for Russia.

It seems that Trump’s ability to sway Putin is constrained. Putin asserts that Russia’s economy, driven mainly by defense expenditures, continues to operate relatively well notwithstanding the economic penalties imposed by the West.

Alexander Baunov from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center based in Berlin has remarked, “Given Trump’s limited choices for addressing either outright Russian refusal or prolonged pretended adherence, his best approach may well involve using incentives more so than penalties: the allure of significant negotiations.” This strategy would likely dovetail with Putin’s objectives.

The translation of this article was done from German.

Author: Grzegorz Szymanowski