US-China Clash Not Inevitable: Escaping the Thucydides Trap
The concept of the Thucydides Trap suggests that when a new powerful nation emerges, it inevitably leads to conflict with the dominant global leader. This notion frequently shapes perceptions of potential strife between China and the United States. However, I contend that the result hinges not on destiny but on decisions made by both nations.
Graham Allison, a Harvard professor who made the phrase widely known, 2012 Financial Times article , concurs with me regarding the significance of human agency. During a book reading event, he stated as much, Avoiding Thucydides's Trap: A Conversation with Graham Allison About China-US Relations Relation s, conducted last month alongside the Munich Security Conference: " Structural forces explain 75-80 percent of the result, yet human action influences the remaining portion."
Peace is not merely an illusion; it's a feasible choice as long as we take strong action.
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The concept of The Trap dates back to the rivalry between Athens and Sparta, which ultimately led to warfare. Throughout history, numerous analogous cautionary tales have been observed—newly emerging nations often clash with established leading powers. However, there are instances where this pattern was not followed. During the 1890s, Britain and Germany managed to steer clear of armed confrontation by engaging in economic competition instead. This idea is explored further in Allison’s book. Fated for Conflict - Can America and China Avoid Thucydides'sTrap? , does not foretell catastrophe; it encourages us to redesign the pattern.
That China's economy achieved 5 percent growth last year and is expected to increase by an additional 5 percent this year Despite America's containment strategies highlighting the significance of the situation, more than 70,000 U.S. businesses achieve annual sales totaling $600 billion in that region, underscoring its importance. Tesla's Shanghai operations Driving its global success, these connections serve as a cornerstone for mutual benefits, emphasizing collaboration rather than competition—much like how trade previously stabilized relationships between European powers.
US President Donald Trump's return to power introduces a new dynamic. While 80 per cent of Americans view China unfavourably, Trump praised Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership during his campaign. His focus on economic outcomes over ideological divides sets him apart from Washington's norm.
In Munich, Allison forecasted that by January 2026, US-China relations would "delight us positively," pointing to Trump's influence. deal-oriented approach along with indications of softened rhetoric. appointees such as the ex-CEO David Perdue and financial expert Scott Bessent prefer active involvement over persistent antagonism.
Trump's focus on economic issues creates opportunities for discussions about trade and technological advancements. China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, scheduled to start next year, offers a structure for potential new deals—possibly involving infrastructure development or investments in the U.S.—that could resonate with Trump's objectives.
On Taiwan Economic inducements from mainland China, including enhanced economic and tourist interactions, might help alleviate tensions and promote coexistence. Such initiatives could influence American stakeholders by highlighting mutual benefits. This approach could be underpinned by a contemporary communiqué that expands upon these points. 1972 Shanghai accord , could delineate shared pledges for maintaining stability and prosperity, adding diplomatic significance should discussions intensify.
This goes further than just bilateral relationships—it’s an opportunity to influence global results. Take Ukraine as an example. According to Allison, China might have a significant part to play in settling that dispute, which could boost its international reputation. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated that no American soldiers will be sent there, implying that peacekeeping efforts should be carried out by both European and non-European forces.
Russia's opposition to a European deployment by NATO, the transatlantic organization, fuels an opening for China And other non-European personnel. Among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, China contributes the most to United Nations peacekeeping missions. China along with other BRICS nations might provide impartial forces or even accommodate negotiation processes for peace in Beijing.
Leveraging its diplomatic expertise, China might bring together Brazil, India, and South Africa to assist in mediating a resolution for Ukraine, thereby enhancing its own influence through additional assurances.
Trump's intention to stop that conflict coincides with this chance; he intends to visit China as part of these plans. within 100 days During their initial months in office, or before June, leaders from Beijing, Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Kyiv should capitalize on this opportunity – restoring the United Nations' credibility and authority by passing a UN Security Council resolution to deploy UN peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.
Discussions about trade, investments, and even a Phase Two or Phase Three accord might result in improvements in sectors important to Trump. Establishing international platforms aimed at reframing power shifts as chances for cooperation, rather than merely competition, could alter worldwide viewpoints. Achieving this success would stabilize various zones and demonstrate China’s ability to transform rivalry into partnership.
Trump's tariff threats unsettle markets However, his inclination towards deals rather than ideology provides China with an edge. During the Munich conference, Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted that China’s strategy is based on respect and mutual benefits—a steadfast position amidst ambiguity.
Beijing might suggest trade deals or tech partnerships that would be attractive to Trump’s advisors, particularly business figures enticed by China’s economic influence. This could foster a more pragmatic stance in Washington. When discussing topics such as TikTok An economic agreement could lessen friction. On a global scale, China can utilize platforms such as the G20 to promote a definitive message of cohabitation – not just a denial of confrontation, but rather a positive outlook for stability via openness.
The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable; it serves as a summons for action. As President Xi aptly put it, "There are myriad reasons to ensure the success of Sino-American relations, and none to damage them."
From assisting mediation efforts in Ukraine to making investments in the U.S., China might challenge historically negative patterns. Strengthening relationships with influential American businessmen linked to Trump could emphasize pragmatic achievements over political grandstanding. Promote dialogue for uniting nations of the Global South. Synchronize the next five-year plan with U.S. economic objectives. Reduce friction via cooperation instead of conflict. Achieving peace demands action, not luck. Now is the moment to step forward into this opportunity.
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