Could Sudan's Split into Two Nations Be Inevitable?
Following nearly two years of conflict, the United Nations reports that Sudan faces the most severe humanitarian crisis globally. The continuous military attacks, food shortages, and outbreaks of diseases have led to the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, with millions more forced from their homes.
This present Ramdan coincides with nearly two years of conflict involving the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), along with their various allies.
In April 2023, during Ramadan, the leaders of the two factions met. fell out over how to integrate the RSF into the SAF.
The ongoing fierce conflict over leadership of the nation has pushed Sudan into becoming the largest global crisis involving humanitarian aid and population displacement.
Currently, apart from the critical humanitarian crisis, there is also widespread hunger and starvation. ongoing fighting And with cholera outbreaks, the conflict-ravaged nation faces the threat of splitting into two competing governments.
'Grave concerns'
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, who dominate much of Sudan’s western Darfur area as well as portions of the south, have recently signed a document to form a "Government of Peace and Unity" within territories they oversee.
The UN Security Council has cautioned that such an action could potentially worsen the situation. ongoing conflict In Sudan, causing fragmentation of the nation and exacerbating an already severe humanitarian crisis."
This week, the African Union—a organization encompassing 55 African nations—also expressed strong disapproval of "the declaration made by the Rapid Support Forces along with its associated political and social groups about setting up an alternative administration within the Republic of Sudan." The union further cautioned that this move poses significant risks for the potential division of the nation.
The Sudanese Armed Forces, who command much of the nation's northern and eastern regions, and recently won back Extensive areas of the capital, Khartoum, along with central Sudan, revealed a political plan "towards peace" in February.
"Both sides aim to establish themselves as the 'legitimate authority' within the nation," stated Leena Badri, who is affiliated with the International Security Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
"The SAF stated that any end to fighting will only happen once the paramilitary militia withdraws and gathers for disarmament while the RSF hopes to gain access to more formal weapons import through establishing a government," she added.
"A genuine eagerness toصند conclude the violence and devastation It has not been articulated on the ground.
Division worsens the humanitarian crisis.
Experts and advocates for human rights are growing more worried about the cascading impacts that could result from a possible division.
"Having parallel governing bodies would distance Sudan’s citizens even more from achieving peace, justice, and liberty, and would solidify the grip of military leaders over Sudan’s political destiny," said Shayna Lewis, a Sudan expert and senior adviser for the U.S.-based nonprofit organization Preventing andEnding Mass Atrocities (PAEMA).
We have already begun observing unfriendly environment for humanitarian aid by the RSF and the SAF, with blockages and restrictions on unfettered humanitarian access remaining in place," Mohamed Osman, a Sudan researcher at the US-based NGO Human Rights Watch, confirmed.
The government proposed by RSF is not something we anticipate will support or promote human rights or enhance the situation. humanitarian situation "as documented during their respective records throughout the conflict," he stated.
For the 12.9 million Sudanese individuals who have been compelled to leave their residences, with nearly 9 million being internally displaced within the country, the circumstances are already extremely grave. risks getting even worse .
This week, the UN cautioned that people in refugee camps in Sudan’s western Darfur area are facing starvation and death from hunger.
Salah Adam, residing in the Abu Shouk refugee camp in Darfur, stated on Friday that "the conditions are very tough ."
He mentioned that we only have minimal food remaining and are facing a water scarcity issue.
He stated that there were no further medical services available and that the shelling by the RSF persisted.
I'm deeply concerned about our well-being and the circumstances in Sudan, yet we feel powerless to make any difference.
International influence
Spectators consistently emphasize that the result of the Sudanese conflict hinges significantly on the support from the global partners aligned with each side involved in the fighting.
The Sudanese Armed Forces led by General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan depend on political endorsement and military assistance from Egypt and Qatar.
The Sudanese authorities blame the Rapid Support Forces, led by General Mohammed Dagalo, for obtaining weapons through shipments arriving from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) via the country of Chad, which borders Sudan.
Nevertheless, the UAE rejects these claims despite human rights groups uncovering proof that weapons manufactured in the UAE have been utilized in the conflict.
Earlier this month, General al-Burhan has filed a lawsuit against the United Arab Emirates at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
The United Arab Emirates backs the uprising and aids the militant group responsible for the criminal act. genocide "In West Darfur," the official document submitted to the court stated.
A representative from the UAE informed the French news outlet AFP that the matter was merely "a calculated attempt at media manipulation designed to distract public focus."
The United Nations suggests that the number of fatalities over the last twenty-four months has reached a minimum of 40,000.
Edited by: Anne Thomas
Author: Jennifer Holleis
